The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has released new projections on Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) production, highlighting both advancements and ongoing challenges in scaling up production.

SAF Production Growth: A Mixed Picture

In 2024, SAF production reached 1 million tonnes (1.3 billion liters), marking a twofold increase from 2023, which saw production at 0.5 million tonnes (600 million liters). Despite this progress, SAF still accounts for only 0.3% of global jet fuel production and 11% of global renewable fuel output.

However, this figure falls short of earlier estimates, which had projected SAF production for 2024 at 1.5 million tonnes (1.9 billion liters). Delays in ramping up production at key SAF facilities in the United States have pushed their timelines into the first half of 2025.

Looking ahead, IATA forecasts that in 2025, SAF production will reach 2.1 million tonnes (2.7 billion liters), equating to 0.7% of total jet fuel production and 13% of global renewable fuel capacity.

The Challenge of Accelerating SAF Production

"SAF volumes are increasing, but at a disappointingly slow pace," said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General. "Governments continue to send mixed signals by subsidizing fossil fuel exploration while failing to provide sufficient incentives for new-generation fuel producers. Investors also seem hesitant, waiting for easy guarantees before committing fully. With airlines operating on razor-thin margins—just 3.6% net—expectations for SAF profitability should be long-term and sustainable rather than focused on short-term gains. Airlines are eager to purchase SAF, and there are substantial financial opportunities for companies that invest in the long-term decarbonization of the sector. Governments can play a key role in accelerating this transition by phasing out fossil fuel subsidies and replacing them with strategic incentives for SAF and other renewable energy sources."

Aviation and the Global Energy Transition

Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s Senior Vice President of Sustainability and Chief Economist, emphasized that aviation’s decarbonization must be viewed within the broader global energy transition. "Aviation should not be treated as an isolated transportation issue. SAF production is just one part of a larger shift toward renewable energy, and refineries producing SAF will also generate other renewable fuels used across industries. The world must maximize renewable energy output, and airlines need equitable access to that supply."

To reach net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050, IATA estimates that between 3,000 and 6,500 new renewable fuel plants will be required. These facilities will produce SAF alongside renewable diesel and other alternative fuels for various industries. Achieving this will require an annual capital expenditure of approximately $128 billion over the next 30 years—a figure significantly lower than the $280 billion annual investments made in solar and wind energy between 2004 and 2022.

"Governments must act quickly to introduce strong policy incentives that accelerate renewable fuel production," said Walsh. "We have a model to follow from the wind and solar industries. The encouraging news is that the financial investment needed for SAF and other aviation fuels is significantly lower than what was required to scale wind and solar energy. Redirecting even a portion of the subsidies currently granted to fossil fuels could significantly boost SAF production."

Short-Term Strategies for SAF Expansion

IATA identified three key areas where immediate action can accelerate SAF production and usage:

• Increase Co-Processing in Existing Refineries: Traditional refineries can co-process up to 5% of approved renewable feedstocks alongside crude oil, requiring minimal infrastructure investment. Expanding this approach could eliminate the need for 260 new renewable fuel plants by 2050, saving an estimated $347 billion in capital expenditure.

• Diversify SAF Production Pathways: While there are 11 certified pathways for SAF production, the industry currently relies heavily on Hydrotreated Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA)—which uses feedstocks such as used cooking oil and animal fats—accounting for 80% of SAF production in the next five years. Increasing investment in alternative pathways such as Alcohol-to-Jet (AtJ) and Fischer-Tropsch (FT), which utilize agricultural and biological waste, could significantly boost SAF availability.

• Establish a Global SAF Accounting Framework: A transparent, standardized registry is crucial to ensure that airlines receive full credit for their SAF purchases. Such a system would prevent double counting and facilitate a global SAF market where producers and airlines can efficiently trade SAF credits, supporting widespread adoption.

A Call to Action

IATA’s latest SAF production estimates highlight both progress and ongoing challenges in the aviation industry's decarbonization efforts. While SAF production is increasing, it remains well below the levels needed to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. Governments, investors, and the energy sector must work together to create a policy environment that supports rapid expansion of SAF production, ensuring aviation plays a meaningful role in the global energy transition.